The tide has turned on National. The party’s six-year period of basking in 50%+ public support is over. National’s popularity is now seriously dented, and its grip on government is clearly challenged. Last night’s TV3 opinion poll was a crucial one in confirming that the party has lost a fair chunk of support in recent weeks – see: TV3’s Greens, Labour rise in latest poll. The poll shows that National has dropped four percentage points – the same as last week’s TV One poll. More alarming for National, the TV3 poll records that as preferred PM, John Key drops to 40%, his lowest rating since becoming leader in 2006. What’s more, the public’s approval of Key’s performance has dropped 4.5% – which adds up to an massive 20% drop from 75% to 55% in just seven months. Declines in leadership support are normally followed by further declines in party support. And for National this metric is incredibly important, because Key is their main asset. As John Hartevelt says, ‘The political magic of Key's personal appeal is not so much National's trump card, as its only card… If his impact continues to decline, there's real trouble… the prime minister is far from a spent force yet, but when his well finally runs dry, National's will too’ – see: Class-size fiasco drowns out royal slam dunk. [Read more below]
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